“We are certainly in a deflationary state,” said David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist with Gluskin Sheff and Associates in Toronto. “Of that, there’s no doubt. I think people still have no clue as to just how weak the economy is,” Mr. Rosenberg said. Remove the “impressive medication” administered by governments, and most economies are at a virtual standstill.”
On October 6, 2009, the entire world saw just how quickly the value of the US dollar could fall. From that day forward, central banks and foreign investors will include in their financial planning the risk of the failure of the US dollar. From now on, the US dollar is on a deathwatch. Patrick A. Heller
“The pain of allowing Lehman to fail will be dwarfed by the agony of bailing out the rest of Wall Street, which is now a foregone conclusion. Just because the Lehman bankruptcy created unpleasant consequences does not mean it was a mistake. On the contrary, sometimes doing the right thing hurts – especially if it is done to avoid even greater pain down the road. It just seems that our representatives are incapable of asking for short-term sacrifice. There is no price they are not willing to force the rest of us to pay to assure their own reelection,” writes Peter Schiff.
Spain is sliding into a full-blown economic depression with un- employment approaching levels not seen since the Second Republic of the 1930s and little chance of recovery until well into the next decade.
“Investors are celebrating an incipient “recovery,” but the interventions that were responsible for it are sowing the seeds of a more violent contraction down the road. The problem, quite simply, is debt. We’ve accumulated record amounts, yet many economists tell us we need more,” writes Rolfe Winkler who continues saying, “Leading the charge is Paul Krugman. He exhorts us to borrow our way back to prosperity, but he doesn’t acknowledge that his brand of Keynesian economics ignores the consequences of debt. If you look at a chart of America’s total debt burden, he’s leading us over a cliff.”
If we refuse to allow the economy to experience a real recession, we will never have the benefit of a real recovery but our leaders are resisting such an experience with all their might. There is no question that the sense of panic has temporarily subsided in public but the underpinnings and reality is deteriorating as the recent jobs report in the US revealed to everyone. “Is there anyone in Washington DC, besides Ron Paul, who is sincere in action, character, and utterance? Truth is no longer practiced in Washington DC. Political agendas are forced upon American citizens through the exercise of lies, deception, half-truths, and fear tactics,” writes James Quinn.
Truth will ultimately prevail where there is pains to bring it to light. George Washington
The truth is that over the last six months, notices of home foreclosures have been running about 350,000 a month, which is over 4 million a year. Bigger loan losses lie ahead. The actual total losses to come is anyone’s guess, but the $11 trillion in outstanding home mortgages could easily produce over $2 trillion in defaulted mortgages, and another $600 billion of credit losses!
“For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth; to know the worst and provide for it.” Patrick Henry
And that says nothing of the trillions of dollars in commercial real-estate losses the present financial system is now weaker then at the end of 2008 so hardly in a condition to weather the even greater storms coming over the horizon. Millions of Americans have gone from feeling safe and secure to having nothing. Millions more are feeling a whole lot poorer relative to their past experiences of wealth. People are hunkering in not expanding out their chests and emptying out their wallets at the mall. What was life in the west will never be recovered. No recovery is even imaginable until all that is present and corrupt crumbles. There will be a tipping point in the near future when the public wakes up from this massive scheme and robbery happening on Wall Street and the government it has hijacked.
Japan‘s exports tumbled 36 percent in August — with car shipments falling by half — and imports also contracted sharply showing the world’s No. 2 economy remains mired in a deep tailspin.
“Historically, a collapse in the value of a currency necessarily forces a major redistribution of wealth, and the segment of the population that is most devastated by this seems to always be the same. It’s the retirees, and the people close to retirement. When we look to Germany, when we look to Argentina, when we look to Russia – it is the pensioners who are impoverished more than any other group,” writes Daniel R. Amerman.
Alt-A universe covers over 2 million active mortgages. And with 2 million mortgages nearly 30 percent are already at the 30 days late mark. 22 percent are already 90 days late.
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“The biggest and most secretive gathering of ships in maritime history lies at anchor east of Singapore. Never before photographed, it is bigger than the U.S. and British navies combined but have no crew, no cargo and no destination…” It’s a ghost fleet that grows the further international trade falls into the pits. These are expensive ghosts.
“The country is being buffeted by a violent tempest and driven towards a jagged reef that will rip a fatal fissure in the hull of our ship of state. As our ship flounders in violent seas driven by gale force winds, the weak pathetic excuses for leaders in our country, rather than lighten the load and reversing course, have chosen to increase our speed straight into the teeth of the cyclone, writes James Quinn.
New orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods fell unexpectedly in August, dropping by their biggest margin in seven months.
Bundesbank chief Axel Weber sees no crunch now, yet fears a second pulse of the crisis this winter. “We are threatened by stress from our domestic credit industry through the rise in the insolvency of firms and households,” he says.
Peter Schiff says, “The Chinese government will come to its senses and stop buying Treasuries. This will cause the U.S. dollar to collapse, but it will also allow Chinese citizens to fully enjoy the fruits of their labor. Once the Chinese begin consuming more of their own products, those products will no longer be available to Americans. Once they start spending more of their incomes on themselves, those funds will no longer be available for us to borrow. Unfortunately, that is when our real economic crisis will begin. The worst part is that the longer these imbalances are allowed to continue, the larger they grow and the more painful the ultimate adjustment process becomes.”
In real life our species has such a modest ability to deal with distant outcomes or to defer gratification that a bad ending is probably inevitable. We need, it seems, the shock of a Pearl Harbor to really gear up and make sacrifices. Jeremy Grantham
Before the dollar hits the wall or before the inflation that is now baked in the cake arises it’s a good idea to start shifting your financial decisions (buy gold) and prepare oneself and ones family for hard times ahead. Stocking food and non pharmaceutical medicines and preparing ones heart and spirit for the challenges ahead are all good ideas as is getting to know your neighbors and other people better, people to cooperate with when life gets driven abruptly to a more local level of existence.
Western central banks will have to “monetize” deficits on a huge scale to stave off debt deflation. The longer they think otherwise, the worse it will be. – Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
“The dollar’s collapse through the loss of its reserve status has already begun. But it is the political risk, this political will inside the US that ensures that this collapse will be a hyperinflation the likes of which the world has never seen. Never before has a global reserve currency imploded. The stage is now set, the audience seated, the lights dimmed, and a low, rumbling, tympanic drum roll can be heard rising from under the stage,” writes FOFOA.
FOFOA continues saying, “In our current crisis, it is the dollar that is at risk. The collective has given implicit support to unlimited government printing in hopes that it will slow the fall from the collapse of credit derivatives. We now also have the central bank of central banks suggesting printing support to guarantee the sum total of bank credit derivatives numbering five to ten times larger than the entire value of all equity on the planet earth. Never before has a global reserve currency imploded. The stage is now set, the audience seated, the lights dimmed, and a low, rumbling, tympanic drum roll can be heard rising from under the stage.”
In banking it has been said: “Loan someone a few thousand and you have a borrower. Loan someone millions or billions or trillions and you have a partner.” “Too big to fail” now also applies to the United States and this is what has saved America so far. Everyone will lose when the dollar goes into the graveyard of currencies so no one is willing to pay for a coffin yet but if you are ready to go out and buy one be sure it is lined with gold.
There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose. – Keynes
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